Re: German chancellor rules out decoupling from China
Replying to: German chancellor rules out decoupling from China calls for quality cooperation -- cyber horse Post ReplyForum


swoosh

04/17/2024, 03:22:01




Author Profile | Edit


The relationship between China and industrialized nations like Germany are surely entering a new territory because China has grown from the cheapest place to manufacture to the largest market for industrial products to a fierce competitor. We can see what happened with China-South Korea relationship, there is a reason why South Korea is pivoting to the US today, Samsung has largely retreated from China smartphone and probably electronic market. Because China has become a competitor to South Korea, and South Korean companies can hardly compete with Chinese companies in China, so South Korea is pivoting to the US and other markets to seize the global market for themselves and defend their companies from Chinese companies expansion.

Right now, the old industrialized nations like G7 is pressuring China to make compromise, to restrain itself just like how the Japanese did in the 90's in return for a seat in adult table. But unlike Japan, China has powerful leverage in the form of the China market which is the largest in the world for many products. Not to mention China is aiming to regain its historical glory which made it harder for China to accept the terms to join them.

Make no mistake, G7, including Germany will choose to side with the US to protect their industry, just like South Korea is getting closer to the US, if China can't offer them enough benefits for continuing the business relationship. Full decoupling will not happen, but some decoupling will happen, replace by third party buffer relationship, like how China is moving factories to ASEAN and Mexico to cater to the US market. It will be painful for every one in the short to medium term. Two things China can do, make some concessions whenever it can to prevent them from fully onboard with the US containment of China, and/or focusing on global south market. But even the later will demand China to open up the Chinese market for them and for China to move some labor intensive industry to the global south countries. That means China need to prepare  to find new employment sources for millions of Chinese workers. If I were Chinese leaders, I would certainly lose a lot of sleep  for the next ten years. It is really a difficult and dangerous time.






Recommend | Alert |
Where am IGo Up Go TopPost ReplyBack

Followups

�������ʿ֪ʶ��Ȩ����ʤ

Copyright Infringement Jury Trial Verdict

Copyright Infringement Lawsuit Software Jury Trial Verdict

Judge James Ware Presiding: Copyright Infringement Trial

Copyright Trial Attorney

Ninth Circuit Copyright Law - Copyright Jury Trial