This is something advocated by Mr. Morita, who is a company leader that has driven Japan's advanced technology and who is known for manufacturing excellent products. He pointed out that the INF limitations (the restrictions on intermediate range nuclear forces) was something that the Soviet and American leaders cam to each other on. While this was an epoch-making event, it was certainly not done because Americans and Russians had a new sense of the danger of nuclear weapons, they were not acting from the standpoint of human morality.
There may be some people who took the INF negotiaions as a sign that both countries were beginning to act from their sense of humanity, but I think the reason why they got together on this is different.
Whether it be mid-range nuclear weapons or inter-continental ballistic missiles, what ensures the accuracy of weapons is none other than compact, high-precision computers. As everyone knows, current ICBMs use the MIRV concept where there are multiple warheads. When an attacking missile gets near enough to be detected, the warhead splits into 8 or 9 separate heads. Not all of them contain hydrogen bombs, however, some are dummies designed just to dupe the enemy.
The remaining warheads lose speed, reenter from space, fall, run sideways and follow complicated paths, but in the end, they hit the targets picked for them by spy satellites and destroy them to within 1 second of latitudinal and longitudinal accuracy. For a Soviet ICBM, this would mean hitting the silo containing the retaliatory ICBM in Vandenburg AFB California.
These silos go 50 or 60 meters underground and are strong fortresses having thick walls of reinforced concrete. If a direct hit is not scored upon them, one cannot destroy the hudrogen bombs inside. The equipment will not even be affected as much as it is in an earthquake if a direct hit is not made. Thus, it is absolutely vital that a direct hit is made.
At the present time, Soviet technology allows these missiles to hit within a 60 meter accuracy, while for the U.S., it is 15 meters, and there is concern that this 15 meters has to be brought down to zero. This type of precision calls for a more complex orbit the further the attack proceeds, and only artificial intelligence can ensure accuracy. It may well be that America was the 4th generation leader and that the 1 megabit and several megabit devices which will support the next, the 5th generation, can be developed by American know-how. However, to use this know-how across diverse applications, including weapons, requires a country with dramatically advanced production management; it is only Japan that can deliver on it.
In sum, if Japanese semiconductors are not used, this accuracy cannot be assured. It has come to the point that no matter how much they continue military expansion, if Japan stopped selling them the chips, there would be nothing more they could do.
If, for example, Japan sold chips to the Soviet Union and stopped selling them to the U.S., this would upset the entire military balance. Some Americans say that if Japan were thinking of doing that, it would be occupied. Certainly, this is an age where things could come to that. The more technology advances, the more the U.S. and the Soviet Union will become dependent upon the initiative of the Japanese people -- this is getting crazy now, but the point is clear.
The U.S. Defense Department's Science Commission recently prepared a huge classified report on electronic engineering. Looking at this, one can well understand the sense of crisis that the U.S. has with respect to Japan.
The report states that if Japan is left to go as it is, it will be impossible to get the lead back. This report is very accurate in assessing the areas of weakness in the U.S. and the strengths in Japan, but only the President and a few select people have seen the report. If it were seen by the general public, it would certainly raise quite a commotion. It is in this area where the U.S. specialists have their greatest sense of danger, primarily centering on Japan's semiconductor technology.
"We have grown very dependent upon America's technological superiority in military strength. In that technology, electronic equipment is the most effective technology. Semiconductors are the "key" to preserving this superiority in electronic equipment, they are the "heart of the equipment." If competitive, mass production of semiconductors is the key, then this is in turn dependent upon having the market to support mass production."
This dependence on the market for supporting mass production can be seen in that America did not have the vast and diverse needs for semiconductors, as Japan did in rice cookers and other household appliances. In Japan, these sizable and diverse needs created the market for semiconductor production. The report continues:
"American's Semiconductor Industry for its commercial mass production is losing its superiority minute by minute. There is a strong relationship between superiority in production technology and superiority in semiconductor technology, this is being transferred to foreign countries minute by minute. Very soon now, the defense of America will become dependent upon supply sources abroad. It is the opinion of the task team that this is something which is absolutely unacceptable for the United States."
What is meant in the report by "foreign supply sources" is none other than Japan. Further, they seem to worry about the following:
"What is more problematic is that the electronic equipment systems are being transferred abroad, where they could more easily get transferred into the hands of the Soviet Union."
In other words, their sense of crisis stems from the fact that the semiconductor technology is absolutely vital in maintaining military superiority, and that this might flow from Japan to the Soviet Union. I feel that what is behind this abnormal hysteria on the part of this country is that this pivotal military technology is in the hands of another country, not even Europe, but in the hands of an Asian country, Japan.
Toshiba, etc. which was speared by COCOM is the gault of this hysteria by the U.S. If that had been criticism from the pure perspective of the law, it would not for a moment have any basis at all.
The 1 megabit semiconductors which are used in the hearts of computers, which carry hundreds of millions of circuits in an area which is one-third the size of your little fingernail, are only made in Japan. Japan has nearly a 100 percent share of these 1 megabit semiconductors.
The United States has the know-how to make them, but when it comes down to actual production, they don't have the technicians; they don't have the employees. Further, they don't have the production management. Because they don't have development and production linked into one unit, they guard know-how like a jewel.
America went after cheap labor and set up factories in Southeast Asia, where they could make 256k chips (1/4 the capacity of 1 megabit chips), but they could not catch Japan. Now, Japan is at least 5 years ahead of the U.S. in this area and the gap is widening. There is even some kinds of basic research which cannot be accomplished without using one of these advanced computers. It take excellent computers in order to develop other advanced computers -- it is a cycle of technology. In other words, the bigger the gap in advanced computer technology, the more difficult it is to catch up.
The current situation in the world is that those kinds of computers are central to military strength and therefore central to national power. This is why the U.S. is being driven so hard. For example, in performing simulations of what elements would be needed by aircraft flying at mach 2, a regular computer might take 40 years to perform the necessary computations. If the same query is put to a new, advanced, computer, however, the answer will come out in a year. Japan has almost the total share of the 1 megabit chips which are at the heart of these computers. In that sense, Japan has become a very important country.