When the time comes when Japan does say "no" decisively on a particular issue, there may be a dramatic reaction. It could come as a shock to the Americans, and a number of different reactions would be possible. Even now, some Americans suggest the possible physical occupation of Japan in case Japan engages in semicondcutor trade with the Soviet Union.
Yet when the time comes, we may well dare say "no." The relationship between Japan and the US, as Mr. Morita describes it, is unbreakable. However, the whole world does not exist for the sake of Japan and the US. Japan's relationship with the rest of the world does not exist only in relation to or through the US. Should America behave unreasonably toward Japan, Japan must open channels to deal with the rest of the world from a different standpoint than on the basis of the US-Japan relationship and it must show that it is doing this to the Americans.
America itself has already exhibited certain indications that it is shifting towards a closer relationship with the Soviet Union, as Alvin Toffler stated, insinuating that Japan will be threatened once the US establishes a more collaborative realetionship with the Soviet Union similar to the case of the US movement toward China, which burst forth in December 1978, there was also an astonishing high technolgy demostration.
I for one had a chance to observe some of that demonstration. It began with a set of satellte photos which Dr. Kissinger brought to China. At that time Viet Nam was engaged in a military conflict with China, subsequent to the fall of the Saigon government in April 1970 and the Cambodian war. The Sino-Vietnamese war was recklessly provoked by Deng Shoa Ping, chief of staff in China. In the initial encounters, China was severely defeated. The real power behind Viet Nam was the Soviet Union. The Soviets provided Viet Nam with detailed satellite photos illustrating the movements of the Chinese military, the number of soldiers and divisions, the number of tanks unloaded at Kuang Tong station and which direction all these troops took. Taking adavantage of the superior information available to them, as provided by the Soviet Union, Viet Nam was able to lure the Chinese troops deep into the mountains, then desroy them with anti-tank missiles. This miserable battle was all recorded by American satellites, which Dr. Kissinger presented to the Chinese with the comment "what a silly war you have conducted."
Needless to say, it was a shock to the Chinese leaders to see how step by step their military was demolished.
I assume that the Americans showed another series of satellite pictures showing the horrible massacre of Chinese soldiers at the siege of Damansky Island (in Russian) or Chin Pao Island (in Chinese), which is located in the middle of the Amur (phonetic rendering) River. At first, only a small number of Russian soldiers occupied the island and they were soon driven off by the Chinese, who had many more troops than did the Russians. The Russians returned in greater numbers and recaptured the island. Fianlly, the Chinese sent the equivalent of a human wave of troops, almost flooding the island with soldiers. As the Chinese shouted victory, the island was surrounded by a sudden mist and eventually it was covered by a dense fog. The Russians exploited this climactic assistance, surrounding the island with tanks and opening a salvo. At dawn, there were a great many dead Chinese troops. The Russians landed their tanks, rolling over the dead, wounded, and living, reducing all to nothing.
The Americans showed clear pictures of the events, illustrating what had taken place using satellite pictures, a great demonstration of the combination of technology and intelligence gathering. China was shocked and disturbed that it could not effectively counter a situation like that as they simply did not have access to the technology required. They listened to the Americans, and agreed to the development of a bilateral relationship with the US on American terms. America had played its high tech card quite effectively.
The normalization of relations with China, by-passing Japan, set a precedent and provided a basis for other such threats to Japan by the US. America can bluff Japan by indicating that it can develop a similar relationship with the Soviet Union, without consultation, so that Japan would be less needed within the framework of US global strategy. But Japan has a similar card to play, counter to the American bluff.
Some of Japan's business leaders have long had an interest in Siberian development, which now appears to be a realistic possibility. Some of them are of the opinion that Japan could go neutral, revoking the US-Japan Security Treaty, if the Soviets will return the northern islands, granted that Japan would be given the right to develop Siberian resources.
This may be a realistice choice from the Soviet point of view since some critical technologies such as linear technology are available from Japan. The US simply does not have them. Japan had better start sending some signals of its own to America. My American friends comment that my behavior in the US is too provocative; I feel that more of us should speak out like this more often.
Japan could have the Soviets formally request Japan's linear technolgy. The COCOM would claim that it is illegal for Japan to provide this technology. Japan would then mount a public relations campaign, appealing to the rest of the world that the use of its linear technology is simply to enhance the efficiency of the Soviet railroad system in Siberia so that travel time is shortened and the whole thing will be rationalized as an attempt to restrain American intervention. In fact, the UK and France are champions at this kind of public relations game, in combination with diplomacy. We need more skillful players in the game to counter the formidable American challenges in the international arena.